BANHARN IN CHARGE

A day later, on July 4, Banharn said on television that the alliance, which took the name Thai Development Front, had confirmed he would be prime minister. He also announced that a seventh party, the business-oriented Nam Thai, had joined the coalition. That gave the Front a comfortable majority of 233 seats in the 391-member parliament. Even more impressive, the new grouping has apparently agreed on a formula to allocate cabinet posts among the partners. Banharn says the line-up, which he promises will be composed only of "clean" people, will be announced July 11.

So can Thais expect a government that will deliver? Many analysts have yet to be convinced. Banharn, 62, has a reputation as a man who gets things done, but he is also seen as a wheeler dealer with ties to shady businessmen and politicians. And coalitions in Thailand are notoriously fragile. Banharn's two largest partners, New Aspiration and Palang Dharma (PDP), were once members of Chuan's government.

Banharn's first task is to settle competing claims. Two of the alliance's most charismatic politicians, PDP chief Thaksin Shinawatra and Samak Sundaravej of the Prachakorn Thai, want to deal with Bangkok's traffic problems. Both parties' strongholds are in the capital. At one point, Thaksin, the billionaire telecommunications tycoon who served briefly as Chuan's foreign minister, threatened to quit the coalition. But Banharn has struck a compromise. The PDP will tackle traffic problems within Bangkok; Prachakorn Thai will work on those outside.

His next moves are being closely watched. "The choice of cabinet members is crucial to the viability of the new government," says Olarn Chaiprawat, president of Siam Commercial Bank. Both the next prime minister and his party have to work on their image. Led by former prime minister Chatichai Choonhavan, Chart Thai governed Thailand from 1988 to 1991. Chatichai's administration was seen as so corrupt that a new phrase was coined for the way it did things: "buffet politics." The army cited the unsavory dealings in mounting a bloodless coup in 1991.

Chatichai now leads a new party, Chart Pattana, which joins the Democrats in the opposition. But the stain on Chart Thai remains. Some fear that the party's return to power could put the armed forces back on alert. Said army commander-in-chief Gen. Wimol Wongwanich, when asked if the military will accept Banharn as prime minister: "If the people have made their decision, then the army must also accept it." Still, if there are too many problems within the coalition, there may be more reason for the army to intervene, says Weng Tojirakarn of the activist group Confederation for Democracy.

The potential for corruption has also made the business community wary. The Thai stock market index declined more than a percentage point immediately after the election results were announced. But it rebounded on hopes that the coalition would appoint technocrats, not party bosses and their protŽgŽs, to key ministries. Nam Thai's decision to join the Banharn bandwagon further boosted confidence. Led by banker Amnuay Viravan, the party formed only last year has attracted well-known political, military, academic and business figures.

Banharn also faces problems within his own party. During the campaign, he expressed strong support for Chart Thai members Narong Wongwan and Wattana Asavahem. The U.S. has accused the two men of drug trafficking and refused to grant them visitor visas. Narong, who nearly became prime minister in 1992, lost his seat. But the victorious Wattana, Chart Thai's deputy leader, has said he would like to be interior minister. "He wants to get a cabinet post to prove himself," says Tchaisiri Samudavanija, a political analyst. Other factors are at work. Chart Thai secretary-general Sanoh Thienthong is also interested in the post.

Wattana argues that he would not have been elected an MP nine times if he were indeed a drug lord. But U.S. State Department spokesman Nicholas Burns warned last week that naming unsuitable persons to senior posts may complicate bilateral relations. Later, a U.S. embassy spokeswoman in Bangkok sought to play down his remark. "The new Thai government is still being formed and we believe it is inappropriate to speculate on the composition of that government," she said.

Newin Chidchob is another party heavyweight with a PR problem. The MP who led the attacks on the Democrats over their handling of the scandal-plagued land reform program is involved in what some say may be the country's largest vote fraud case ever. In the run-up to the July 2 elections, police arrested two Chart Thai party workers in a northeastern town. They had on hand some $440,000 in 100- and 20-baht bills -- and thousands of Newin campaign cards. He denies knowledge of any vote-buying scheme.

Ironically, Banharn's image problems and those of his party may yet give Thailand a respectable cabinet. "Everyone is watching," says Bangkok securities analyst Yousef El-Khouri Abboud, "so I think Banharn will have to show he has the right approach." The coalition is said to have agreed to reserve the ministries of interior, finance, public health, justice and university affairs for Chart Thai. New Aspiration, which is led by former Chuan ally Gen. Chaovalit Yongchaiyuth, may get defense, transport and communications, and labor.

A Nam Thai official may be named foreign minister, while party leader Amnuay is likely to be appointed a deputy prime minister with responsibility over international trade. The PDP's Thaksin is almost certain to assume office also as a deputy premier, with Prachakorn's Samak getting the same rank too. Although Thaksin is personally popular, the PDP won only 23 seats, about half of those it had held before the polls. Improving his party's standing is one reason why the tycoon is so keen to solve Bangkok's horrendous traffic woes. "If he can do it," says Democrat Party secretary-general Suthep Thaugsuban, "I will praise him as a legend."

WITH CHART THAI LIKELY TO CONTROL THE KEY FINANCE PORTFOLIO, businessmen are bracing for some initial stumbles. They are worried about inflationary pressures, says securities analyst Abboud. The Chart Thai-led coalition is "proposing a drop in corporate income tax from 30% to 25% and the speeding up of budget expenditures," he explains. "And they plan to spend a lot." But Abboud believes "there will not be too much of a problem if there is a maintenance of tight monetary control and no interference in the operation of the Bank of Thailand."

Others worry about how the new government will tackle electoral reforms -- or whether it will do so at all. In the July 2 polls, says Somchai Srisuthiyakorn, the electoral monitoring commissioner for a private group called PollWatch, "we saw the fiercest competition and the highest amount of money spent in Thai political history." Adds analyst Tchaisiri: "All parties were involved in vote buying." Pro-democracy activist Weng says Banharn's government must "work out some methods to deal with this."

For all the suspicions about the next administration, many Thais seem willing to give it the benefit of the doubt. "It will be good to have a change," says an analyst with the Thai Farmers Bank. "In the beginning, the business community was quite nervous about a Chart Thai victory. But if the two party members with questionable records are not included in the cabinet, there will be confidence about the government." Academic Chayachoke Chulasiriwongs is more cynical: "This new government can't be worse than the one before."

But it can certainly be better. "Under the Democrats, programs were not correctly implemented, especially those on the economy," adds Chayachoke. "And Chuan's coalition was noted for its internal wrangling." What Thailand needs is a decisive leader who can keep his allies in line, says the academic. Banharn may fit the bill. But as the recent elections made clear, little has changed in Thai politics. The next prime minister will have to keep at least one step ahead of his partners' ambitions -- and of voter expectations.